H1B, Bad Programs, and Worse Solutions
All discussion of Trump’s H1B $100,000 bribe, er fee, (we will get to why this is a bribe in a bit) must start with two facts: the H1B visa program is a terrible, terrible program and Trump has no interest in or understanding of how to fix it.
The H1B program does little other than suppress wages. By tying a person’s stay in the country to their specific employment, the H1B program suppresses wages, allows companies to steal from the recipients, and makes it harder for Americans to find certain kinds of work. You are supposed to be able to use H1B visa to fill spots you cannot with American workers, but that is routinely ignored. the people who come to the country on these visas are at the mercy of their employers, meaning they are generally paid significantly less and have little to no recourse when they are abused. It is a system designed to take advantage of people trying to make a better life for themselves, and it has long, long needed reform.
Trump is not reforming it.
The $100,000 fee is stupid. It will not guarantee that more jobs go to Americans. Such a sharp change is more likely to encourage firms to outsource — after all, the people they already have or plan to do the work cannot come into the country — or shift to Canada and Europe. Given the difficulties of outsourcing, it might result in some superficial changes in employment, but as a stand-alone program it will be a failure. This administration cannot think in systems.
Bringing back manufacturing is a net good for the country. No, it will not return us to the economy of the 1950s, but it will have several good effects. It will provide some good jobs that are a better fit for certain people (not everyone is suited to service work; not everyone wants to give up the pleasures of making things), it will ensure that the country can supply critical health, military, and infrastructure needs, and it will help ensure that knowledge and innovation can be preserved. If you do not understand how something is built, you cannot understand how to make it better. But tariffs are not going to bring manufacturing back.
Tariffs are just a tax — and like all taxes has to be judiciously applied to gain your goals. They are one item in a toolbox that can be used to guide the economy to a place that is better for the country overall. By themselves, as a blunt instrument, they are worthless. Sticks by themselves never work — people don’t like being beaten and will find ways to avoid the stick. And most of those ways will not be the result you want. In combination with carrots like incentives, or the government doing the work itself, they can be useful. That is why Biden had an increase in US manufacturing and Trump has seen a decline.
The same principle applies to H1B. Yes, the program needs reform. Yes, the program is not good for H1B workers or American workers. No, this fee will not fix any of those problems for any worker, immigrant or local. Even assuming this is not just another bribe avenue (the fee can be waived at the Administration’s discretion. I guess Tim Cook is going to have to give Trump another gold-plated bribe, er gift, sometime soon), it will not help anyone. It is not part of a plan that takes into account, as best as possible, all the moving parts around employment. It is just a random shot in the dark, given no more thought than a drunken tweet at two in the morning.
The American economy is broken. It is based mostly on hype and exploitation. It needs serious reform. But serious reform requires serious thought, and this Administration is the equivalent of an orange monkey toss darts in the general direction of a dart board it cannot see. It is never going to hit a bullseye and is just as likely to stick an observer as the board itself.